Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
